Four key numbers - government spending, federal tax revenue, the budget deficit, and national debt - provide important and sobering insight into our current fiscal health. 2010's raw numbers are dramatic and mind boggling to the point of distraction, but relating them to our $14.3 trillion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) make them relevant, easier to comprehend, and relatable to one another. Those ratios are as follows: government spending/GDP is 28%; federal tax revenue/GDP is 16%; the budget deficit/GDP is 12%; and the national debt/GDP is 85%. Those ratios are horrendous, especially considering, for example, that the European Union requires members to have national debt and budget deficit ratios less than 40% and 3%, respectively, when they join the union, considerably lower than ours at the moment.
The current budget deficit is 12% of GDP (28% -16%); and will add to our national debt. That deficit means that our economy is currently borrowing 45 cents of every dollar it spends, and at that level it should push our national debt to 109% of GDP within a couple of years (85% + [12% x 2]). That would put us in the esteemed company of Greece and well on our way to the disastrous path of Japan.
Arithmetically, there are two major solutions: decrease spending, increase taxes, or do some of each. Politically, the solution is not so easy. The liberals (usually democrats) want to increase taxes, believing that corporations and the wealthy should pay more to meet our needs. The conservatives (usually republicans) want to decrease spending, pointing to government waste and inefficiency and a spending level similar to some of the European socialist governments. They also say that the top 10% of taxpayers already pay more than 70% of all federal taxes, so it is unlikely that further tax increases targeting only the wealthy will yield enough tax revenue to mitigate our fiscal problem.
Obviously, fiscal policymakers would like to tinker with all four numerators of those ratios, but they should also consider policies that might increase the denominator, GDP, which would also help solve the problem. History and the facts seem to favor the conservative strategy of cutting government spending and cutting taxes as effective catalysts for economic growth. Apparently, across-the-board tax cuts worked well for both democrat and republican administrations, under Calvin Coolidge in the 1920s, John Kennedy in the 1960s, Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, and Bill Clinton in the 1990s.
Reducing our future budget deficits will limit our compounding national debt, and should be our immediate objective. However, reducing our national debt should be a very close second objective. When our debt's interest rates, currently artificially low at 3%, double, triple or worse, the attendant increase in debt payments could cripple our financial system and economy. Rising interest rates will be an inevitable part of the global recovery and it may happen sooner than later. An expanding global demand for capital, global inflation, and a potential reduction in the US credit rating, are among the major factors that could easily cause a dramatic increase in those interest rates and our interest payments. And, as those debt interest payments become a greater proportion of the spending budget they will either crowd out important investment and consumption spending or increase the budget, thereby further expanding our national debt and our fiscal problems. It will come at the expense of our economic growth, productivity and standard of living.
Some expect the government to continue printing money as it and many other governments have done during similar crises in history. This time may be different, however, as the major holders of our debt, especially China, may have something to say about the US deliberately devaluing its debts and their investments. Although inflating out of the problem effectively grows the denominator, GDP, it does so artificially in inflated (not real) terms, and ravages US financial and fixed income assets, such as bank deposits, savings bonds, social security and pension funds. It may also ruin the US dollar. Is that better than a smaller government and reducing government spending?
More articles by this author are available at http://joedelcasino.blogspot.com. Books are available athttp://www.Xlibris.com. Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Joe_DelCasino |
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